Many people believe that about climate change (due to global political disruption, economic collapse etcetera, praising the size of the disaster seems virtuous).

Hm! I cannot recall a single instance of this.

Will keep an eye out for the next citation.

Still, if the analysis says "you will die of this", and the brain of the person considering the analysis is willing to assign it some credence

This has not happened with AI risk so far among most AIfolk, or anyone the slightest bit motivated to reject the advice. We had a similar conversation at MIRI once, in which I was arguing that, no, people don't automatically change their behavior as soon as they are told that something bad might happen to them personally; and when we were breaking it up, Anna, on her way out, asked Louie downstairs how he had reasoned about choosing to ride motorcycles.

People only avoid certain sorts of death risks under certain circumstances.