Thanks for these thoughts.

Broadly, my reaction is that there's no royal road to rationality: one has to make judgments on a case by case basis. I haven't shifted over to using many weak arguments rather than a few strong ones in all instances.

If nothing else, my post shows that:

• It's possible to justifiably have high confidence in a position based on many weak arguments, when there are no strong arguments on the other side.

• I was making the mistake of completely ignoring certain pieces of weak evidence when I should have been giving them some weight.