JonahSinick comments on Many Weak Arguments vs. One Relatively Strong Argument - Less Wrong
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Comments (86)
Let's give this a try.
Claim: Relying on few strong arguments is more reliable than relying on many weak arguments.
I can already see some counters to these arguments (and some counters to those counters), but I suspect it would be more useful to have a list of arguments on the other side in the same format to compare these with.
Thanks for these thoughts.
Broadly, my reaction is that there's no royal road to rationality: one has to make judgments on a case by case basis. I haven't shifted over to using many weak arguments rather than a few strong ones in all instances.
If nothing else, my post shows that:
It's possible to justifiably have high confidence in a position based on many weak arguments, when there are no strong arguments on the other side.
I was making the mistake of completely ignoring certain pieces of weak evidence when I should have been giving them some weight.