JonahSinick comments on Many Weak Arguments vs. One Relatively Strong Argument - Less Wrong

20 Post author: JonahSinick 04 June 2013 03:32AM

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Comment author: JonahSinick 04 June 2013 07:21:51PM 2 points [-]

If you can't easily find examples where your reasoning led you to a new correct conclusion instead of new sympathy toward a wrong conclusion, this is worrisome.

Aside from what I say in my other comment, I'll also remark that the "majoring in a quantitative subject increases expected earnings" case study provides an example of the type that you seem to be looking for. It's doesn't provide an example of a shift from a belief to its negation, but it provides an example from a state of high epistemic uncertainty to reasonably high confidence. This is significant.