That's interesting, because:

"In this age of academic hyperspecialization, there is no reason for supposing that contributors to top journals--distinguished political scientists, area study specialists, economists, and so on--are any better than journalists or attentive readers of the New York Times in "reading" emerging situations. The data reported in chapters 2, 3, and 4 underscore this point. The analytical skills undergirding academic acclaim conferred no advantage in forecasting and belief-updating exercises." (p. 233)