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JoshuaZ comments on Many Weak Arguments vs. One Relatively Strong Argument - Less Wrong
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Sorry, bad phrasing on my part. Tetlock's work shows that experts are better outsider their own field compared to their own field, not necessarily compared to other people.
I suspect your phrasing is still bad, because I don't recall anything of the sort in the book.
I'm pretty sure that's what I meant to say. Unfortunately, I don't have my copy of the book off-hand. I'll have to get back to you.