RogerS comments on Many Weak Arguments vs. One Relatively Strong Argument - Less Wrong
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Perhaps "hedging" is another term that also needs expanding here. One can reasonably assume that Penrose's analysis has some definite flaws in it, given the number of probable flaws identified, while still suspecting (for the reasons you've explained) that it contains insights that may one day contribute to sounder analysis. Perhaps the main implication of your argument is that we need to keep arguments in our mind in more categories then just a spectrum from "strong" to "weak". Some apparently weak arguments may be worth periodic re-examination, whereas many probably aren't.