PhilGoetz comments on Anticipating critical transitions - Less Wrong

17 Post author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2013 04:28PM

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Comment author: PhilGoetz 10 June 2013 07:11:18PM 2 points [-]

Thinking about betting $15,000 on a math problem, to be adjudicated by the outcome of a computer simulation, made me wonder how we know when a computer simulation would give the right answer. Showing the results for the similar-looking but divergent series is the simplest example I could think of of when a computer simulation gives a very misleading estimate of expected value, which is the problem this post is about.