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army1987 comments on Anticipating critical transitions - Less Wrong
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Never mind -- I had read this LW article but not the original Landsburg post it links to, and I was under the impression that it was about the St Petersburg paradox.
(Note to self: Never comment on [LINK]-type LW posts until I've at least skimmed the original article they're based on, no matter how well I think I understand the summary on LW.)