Matt_Simpson comments on Anticipating critical transitions - Less Wrong

17 Post author: PhilGoetz 09 June 2013 04:28PM

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Comment author: Matt_Simpson 12 June 2013 08:40:53PM *  0 points [-]

Off the cuff: it's probably a random walk.

Edit: It's now pretty clear to me that's false, but plotting the ergodic means of several "chains" seems like a good way to figure it out.

Edit 2: In retrospect, I should have predicted that. If anyone is interested, I can post some R code so you can see what happens.