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IlyaShpitser comments on [link] Scott Aaronson on free will - Less Wrong
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Ok -- thanks for a detailed response. To be honest, I think you are quibbling. If your posterior is 99.5% and 95% if being pessimistic you made up your mind essentially as far as a mind can be made up in practice. If the answer to the upload question depends on an empirical test that has not yet been done (because of lack of tech), then you made up your mind too soon.
I think a cynic would say you talk about the upload future more because its much nicer (e.g. you can conquer death!)
These two statements clash very strongly. VERY strongly.
They don't. 99.5% is far too much.
If you can predict the outcome of the empirical test with that degree of confidence or a higher one, then they're perfectly compatible. We're talking what's physically possible with any plan of action and physically possible capabilities, not merely what can be done with today's tech. The negative you're pushing is actually a very very strong nonexistence statement.