I agree with you on unpredictability not being important for agency, but I don't understand the last third of this comment. What is the point that you are trying to make about bi-directional determinism? Specifically, could you restate the mistake you think Aaronson is making in the "our choices today might play a role" quote?
Sorry, I was unclear. I don't think that's a mistake at all! The only "problem" is that it may be an understatement. On a bi-directional determinist picture, our choices today utterly decisively select one past, in a logical sense. That is, statements specifically describing a single past follow logically from statements describing our choices today plus other facts of today's universe. The present still doesn't cause the past, but that's a mere tautology: we call the later event the "effect" and the earlier one the "cause".
Scott Aaronson has a new 85 page essay up, titled "The Ghost in the Quantum Turing Machine". (Abstract here.) In Section 2.11 (Singulatarianism) he explicitly mentions Eliezer as an influence. But that's just a starting point, and he then moves in a direction that's very far from any kind of LW consensus. Among other things, he suggests that a crucial qualitative difference between a person and a digital upload is that the laws of physics prohibit making perfect copies of a person. Personally, I find the arguments completely unconvincing, but Aaronson is always thought-provoking and fun to read, and this is a good excuse to read about things like (I quote the abstract) "the No-Cloning Theorem, the measurement problem, decoherence, chaos, the arrow of time, the holographic principle, Newcomb's paradox, Boltzmann brains, algorithmic information theory, and the Common Prior Assumption". This is not just a shopping list of buzzwords, these are all important components of the author's main argument. It unfortunately still seems weak to me, but the time spent reading it is not wasted at all.