Wei_Dai comments on A personal history of involvement with effective altruism - Less Wrong

10 Post author: JonahSinick 11 June 2013 04:49AM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 26 June 2013 08:27:37PM 5 points [-]

I guess I was doing a Bayesian update based on what he wrote. Yes, technically he gave a lower bound, but while someone who thinks that the best possible future is 10 times better than stagnation (relative to extinction) might still write "Quantifying just how much better such a future would be does not strike me as a very useful exercise, but very broadly, it’s easy for me to imagine a possible future that is at least as desirable as human extinction is undesirable", someone who thinks it's at least a thousand or a billion times better probably wouldn't.