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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Do Earths with slower economic growth have a better chance at FAI? - Less Wrong
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If the ideas for increasing world economic growth can be traced back to you, might the improvement in your reputation increase the odds of FAI?
Sounds like a rather fragile causal pathway. Especially if one is joining an ensemble.
Follow-up: If you are part of an ensemble generating ideas for increasing world economic growth, how much information will that give you about the specific ways in which economic growth will manifest, compared to not being part of that ensemble? How easily leveraged is that information towards directly controlling or exploiting a noticeable fraction of the newly-grown economy?
As a singular example: how much money could you get from judicious investments, if you know where things are going next? How usable would those funds be towards mitigating UFAI risks and optimizing FAI research, in ratio to the increased general risk of UFAI caused by the economic growth itself?
That's why I keep telling people about Scott Sumner, market monetarism, and NGDP level determinism - it might not let you beat the stock market indices, but you can end up with some really bizarre expectations if you don't know about the best modern concept of "tight money" and "loose money". E.g. all the people who were worried about hyperinflation when the Fed lowered interest rates to 0.25 and started printing huge amounts of money, while the market monetarists were saying "You're still going to get sub-trend inflation, our indicators say there isn't enough money being printed."
Beating the market is hard. Not being stupid with respect to the market is doable.