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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you - Less Wrong
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You mention Deep Blue beating Kasparov. This sounds look a good test case. I know that there were times when it was very controversial whether computers would ever be able to beat humans in chess - Wikipedia gives the example of a 1960s MIT professor who claimed that "no computer program could defeat even a 10-year-old child at chess". And it seems to me that by the time Deep Blue beat Kasparov, most people in the know agreed it would happen someday even if they didn't think Deep Blue itself would be the winner. A quick Google search doesn't pull up enough data to allow me to craft a full narrative of "people gradually became more and more willing to believe computers could beat grand masters with each incremental advance in chess technology", but it seems like the sort of thing that probably happened.
I think the economics example is a poor analogy, because it's a question about laws and not a question of gradual creeping recognition of a new technology. It also ignores one of the most important factors at play here - the recategorization of genres from "science fiction nerdery" to "something that will happen eventually" to "something that might happen in my lifetime and I should prepare for it."
Yes, people now believe that computers can beat people at chess.
I.e., they didn't update to expecting HAL immediately after, and they were right for solid reasons. But I think that the polls, and moreso polls of experts do respond to advancements in technology, e.g. on self-driving cars or solar power.
Do we have any evidence that they updated to expecting HAL in the long run? Normatively, I agree that ideal forecasters shouldn't be doing their updating on press releases, but people sometimes argue that press release W will cause people to update to X when they didn't realize X earlier.
It was on our national television, few months ago. Kasparov was here, opened some international chess center for young players in Maribor. He gave an interview and among other things, he told us how fishy was the Deep Blue victory and not real in fact.
At least a half of the population believed him.
I notice I am confused (he said politely). Kasparov is not stupid and modern chess programs on a home computer e.g. Deep Rybka 3.0 are overwhelmingly more powerful than Deep Blue, there should be no reasonable way for anyone to delude themselves that computer chess programs are not crushingly superior to unassisted humans.
I seem to recall that there was some impoliteness surrounding the Deep Blue game specifically- basically, it knew every move Kasparov had ever played, but Kasparov was not given any record of Deep Blue's plays to learn how it played (like he would have had against any other human chessplayer who moved up the chess ranks); that's the charitable interpretation of what Kasparov meant by the victory being fishy. (This hypothetical Kasparov would want to play many matches against Deep Rybka 3.0 before the official matches that determine which of them is better- but would probably anticipate losing at the end of his training anyway.)
That's not everything he said.
Nowadays, sure, but Deep Blue beat Kasparov in 1997. Kasparov has always claimed that IBM cheated during the rematch, supplementing Deep Blue with human insight. As far as I know there's no evidence that he's right, but he's suspected very consistently for the last 15 years.
Request that Thomas be treated as a troll. I'm not sure if he's actually a troll, but he's close enough.
Edit: This isn't primarily based on the above comment, it's primarily based on this comment.
Actually, starting at and around the 30 minute mark in this video -- an interview with Kasparov done in Maribor, a couple months ago, no less -- he whines about the whole human versus machine match up a lot, suggests new winning conditions (human just has to win one game of a series to show superiority, since the "endurance" aspect is the machine "cheating") which would redefine the result etcetera.
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
I looked this up but I don't understand what it was intended to mean in this context.
"Shame on him, who suspects illicit motivation" is given as one of the many possible translations. Don't take the "shame" part too literally, but there is some irony in pointing out someone as a troll when the one comment you use for doing so turns out to be true, and interesting to boot (Kasparov engaging in bad-loser-let's-warp-the-facts behavior).
I'm not taking a stance on the issue whether Thomas is or isn't a troll, you were probably mostly looking for a good-seeming place to share your opinion about him.
(Like spotting a cereal thief in a supermarket, day after day. Then when you finally hold him and call the authorities, it turns out that single time he didn't steal.)
Hm. A brief glance at Thomas's profile makes it hard to be sure. I will be on the lookout.
So why did you write that here rather than there?
Ah, right, the karma toll.
I thought it would be more likely to be seen by Eliezer if I responded to Eliezer.
Hm?
Those were matches with Rybka handicapped (an odds match is a handicapped match) and Deep Rybka 3.0 is a substantial improvement over Rybka. The referenced "Zappa" which played Rybka evenly is another computer program. Read the reference carefully.
Thanks.
Well, for that matter he also believes this stuff.