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CarlShulman comments on After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you - Less Wrong
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I.e., they didn't update to expecting HAL immediately after, and they were right for solid reasons. But I think that the polls, and moreso polls of experts do respond to advancements in technology, e.g. on self-driving cars or solar power.
Do we have any evidence that they updated to expecting HAL in the long run? Normatively, I agree that ideal forecasters shouldn't be doing their updating on press releases, but people sometimes argue that press release W will cause people to update to X when they didn't realize X earlier.