Trevor_Blake comments on After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you - Less Wrong

37 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 13 June 2013 09:59PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 14 June 2013 02:59:18AM 3 points [-]

In general and across all instances I can think of so far, I do not agree with the part of your futurological forecast in which you reason, "After event W happens, everyone will see the truth of proposition X, leading them to endorse Y and agree with me about policy decision Z."

Sir Karl Popper came to the same conclusion in his 1963 book Conjectures and Refutations. So did Harold Walsby in his 1947 book The Domain of Ideologies. You're in good company.