gwern comments on After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you - Less Wrong
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I thought you were exaggerating there, but I looked it up in my copy and he really did say that: pg684-686:
I wonder if he did change his opinion on computer chess before Deep Blue and how long before? I found two relevant bits by him, but they don't really answer the question except they sound largely like excuse-making to my ears and like he was still fairly surprised it happened even as it was happening; from February 1996:
And from January 2007:
I suspect the thermostat is closer to the human mind than his conception of the human mind is.