gwern comments on After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you - Less Wrong
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Douglas Hofstadter being one on the wrong side: well, to be exact, he predicted (in his book GEB) that any computer that could play superhuman chess would necessarily have certain human qualities, e.g., if you ask it to play chess, it might reply, "I'm bored of chess; let's talk about poetry!" which IMHO is just as wrong as predicting that computers would never beat the best human players.
I thought you were exaggerating there, but I looked it up in my copy and he really did say that: pg684-686:
I wonder if he did change his opinion on computer chess before Deep Blue and how long before? I found two relevant bits by him, but they don't really answer the question except they sound largely like excuse-making to my ears and like he was still fairly surprised it happened even as it was happening; from February 1996:
And from January 2007:
I suspect the thermostat is closer to the human mind than his conception of the human mind is.