Yeah, I got that, and I think that his statement is easy to understand so I'm not sure why you're explaining that to me.
Maybe you already understood the first sentence of Eliezer's comment and only misunderstood the later sentences. That's great! By all means ignore the parts of my explanation that are redundant.
Note that when you make comments like this, including the request for feedback, then getting a reply like mine is close to the best case scenario. Alternatives would be finding you difficult to speak to and just ignoring you and dismissing what you have to say in the entire thread because this particular comment is a straw man.
The problem that you have with with my reply seems to be caused by part of it being redundant for the purpose of facilitating your understanding. But in cases where there is obvious and verifiable failures of communication a little redundancy is a good thing. I cannot realistically be expected to perfectly model which parts of Eliezer's comment you interpreted correctly and which parts you did not. After all that task is (strictly) more difficult than the task of interpreting Eliezer's comment correctly. The best I can do is explain Eliezer's comment in my own words and you can take or leave each part of it.
I wrote them first and was evidently ignored (by karma clickers if not by you).
It is frustrating not being rewarded for one's contributions when others are.
I didn't say that he was saying that either.
Let me rephrase. The following quote is not something Eliezer said:
If we're going to have killer drones, there needs to be something to check their power. Example: counter-drones.
I agree that a formal agreement would be meaningless here, but that people will make a cost-benefit analysis when choosing whether to fight is so obvious I didn't think he was talking about that - it doesn't seem like a thing that needs saying.
Eliezer didn't say it. He assumed it (and/or various loosely related considerations) when he made his claim. I needed to say it because rather than assuming a meaning like this 'obvious' one, you assumed that it was a proposal:
Decide who wins wars based on who has more drones and drone defenses instead of actually physically battling?
What if that's not the case, though? What if having a proliferation of deadly technologies makes it damned near impossible to figure out who is going to win? That could result in a lot more wars...
Yes. That would be bad. Eliezer is making the observation that if technology evolves in such a way (and it seems likely) then it would be less desirable than if for some (somewhat surprising technical reason) the new dynamic did not facilitate asymmetric warfare.
Now "the great filter" comes to mind again.
Yes. Good point.
Do you know of anyone who has written about:
A. Whether it is likely for technological advancement to make it significantly more difficult to figure out who will win wars. B. Whether it's more likely for people to initiate wars when there's a lot of uncertainty.
I do not know, but am interested.
...What if having a proliferation of deadly technologies makes it damned near impossible to figure out who is going to win? That could result in a lot more wars.
Yes. That would be bad.
Now "the great filter" comes to mind again.
Yes. Good point.
Do you know of anyone who has written about: A. Whether it is likely for technological advancement to make it significantly more difficult to figure out who will win wars. B. Whether it's more likely for people to initiate wars when there's a lot of uncertainty.
I do not know, but am interested.
A new TED talk video just came out by Daniel Suarez, author of Daemon, explaining how autonomous combat drones with a capability called "lethal autonomy" pose a threat to democracy. Lethal autonomy is what it sounds like - the ability of a robot to kill a human without requiring a human to make the decision.
He explains that a human decision-maker is not a necessity for combat drones to function. This has potentially catastrophic consequences, as it would allow a small number of people to concentrate a very large amount of power, ruining the checks and balances of power between governments and their people and the checks and balances of power between different branches of government. According to Suarez, about 70 countries have begun developing remotely piloted drones (like predator drones), the precursor to killer robots with lethal autonomy.
Daniel Suarez: The kill decision shouldn't belong to a robot
One thing he didn't mention in this video is that there's a difference in obedience levels between human soldiers and combat drones. Drones are completely obedient but humans can throw a revolt. Because they can rebel, human soldiers provide some obstacles to limit the power that would-be tyrants could otherwise obtain. Drones won't provide this type of protection whatsoever. Obviously, relying on human decision making is not perfect. Someone like Hitler can manage to convince people to make poor ethical choices - but still, they need to be convinced, and that requirement may play a major role in protecting us. Consider this - it's unthinkable that today's American soldiers might suddenly decide this evening to follow a tyrannical leader whose goal is to have total power and murder all who oppose. It is not, however, unthinkable at all that the same tyrant, if empowered by an army of combat drones, could successfully launch such an attack without risking a mutiny. The amount and variety of power grabs a tyrant with a robot army of sufficient power can get away with is unlimited.
Something else he didn't mention is that because we can optimize technologies more easily than we can optimize humans, it may be possible to produce killer robots in less time than it takes to build armies of human soldiers and with less expense than training and paying those soldiers. Considering the salaries and benefits paid to soldiers and the 18 year wait time on human development, it is possible that an overwhelmingly large army of killer robots could be built more quickly than human armies and with fewer resources.
Suarez's solution is to push for legislation that makes producing robots with lethal autonomy illegal. There are, obviously, pros and cons to this method. Another method (explored in Daemon) is that if the people have 3-D printers, then the people may be able to produce comparable weapons which will then check and balance their government's power. This method has pros and cons as well. I came up with a third method which is here. I think it's better than the alternatives but I would like more feedback.
As far as I know, no organization, not even MIRI (I checked), is dedicated to preventing the potential political disasters caused by near-term tool AI (MIRI is interested in the existential risks posed by AGI). That means it's up to us - the people - to develop our understanding of this subject and spread the word to others. Of all the forums on the internet, LessWrong is one of the most knowledgeable when it comes to artificial intelligence, so it's a logical place to fire up a discussion on this. I searched LessWrong for terms like "checks and balances" and "Daemon" and I just don't see evidence that we've done a group discussion on this issue. I'm starting by proposing and exploring some possible solutions to this problem and some pros and cons of each.
To keep things organized, let's put each potential solution, pro and con into a separate comment.