GeraldMonroe comments on Near-Term Risk: Killer Robots a Threat to Freedom and Democracy - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Epiphany 14 June 2013 06:28AM

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Comment author: GeraldMonroe 16 June 2013 03:13:54PM *  4 points [-]

Let's talk actual hardware.

Here's a practical, autonomous kill system that is possibly feasible with current technology. A network of drone helicopters armed with rifles and sensors that can detect the muzzle flashes, sound, and in some cases projectiles of an AK-47 being fired.

Sort of this aircraft : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_Rotorcraft_Sniper_System

Combined with sensors based on this patent : http://www.google.com/patents/US5686889

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunfire_locator

and this one http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/login.jsp?tp=&arnumber=1396471&url=http%3A%2F%2Fieeexplore.ieee.org%2Fiel5%2F9608%2F30354%2F01396471

The hardware and software would be optimized for detecting AK-47 fire, though it would be able to detect most firearms. Some of these sensors work best if multiple platforms armed with the same sensor are spread out in space, so there would need to be several of these drones hovering overhead for maximum effectiveness.

How would this system be used? Whenever a group of soldiers leaves the post, they would all have to wear blue force trackers that clearly mark them as friendly. When they are at risk for attack, a swarm of drones follows them overhead. If someone fires at them, the following autonomous kill decision is made

if( SystemIsArmed && EventSmallArmsFire && NearestBlueForceTracker > X meters && ProbableError < Y meters) ShootBack();

Sure, a system like this might make mistakes. However, here's the state of the art method used today :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PL75DEC9EEB25A0DF0&feature=player_detailpage&v=uZ2SWWDt8Wg

This same youtube channel has dozens of similar combat videos. An autonomous killing drone system would save soldier's lives and kill fewer civilians. (drawbacks include high cost to develop and maintain)

Other, more advanced systems are also at least conceivable. Ground robots that could storm a building, killing anyone carrying a weapon or matching specific faces? The current method is to blow the entire building to pieces. Even if the robots made frequent errors, they might be more effective than bombing the building.

Comment author: Epiphany 16 June 2013 11:22:08PM *  1 point [-]

Thanks for the hardware info.

An autonomous killing drone system would save soldier's lives and kill fewer civilians.

In the short-term... What do you think about the threat they pose to democracy?

drawbacks include high cost to develop and maintain

Do you happen to know how many humans need to be employed for a given quantity of these weapons to be produced?

Comment author: GeraldMonroe 17 June 2013 06:25:44PM 2 points [-]

I wanted to make a concrete proposal. Why does it have to be autonomous? Because in urban combat, the combatants will usually choose a firing position that has cover. They "pop up" from the cover, take a few shots, then position themselves behind cover again. An autonomous system could presumably accurately return fire much faster than human reflexes. (it wouldn't be instant, there's a delay for the servos of the automated gun to aim at the target, and delays related to signals - you have to wait for the sound to reach all the acoustic sensors in the drone swarm, then there's processing delays, then time for the projectiles from the return fire to reach the target)

Also, the autonomous mode would hopefully be chosen only as a last resort, with a human normally in the loop somewhere to authorize each decision to fire.

As for a threat to democracy? Defined how? You mean a system of governance where a large number of people, who are easily manipulated via media, on the average know fuck-all about a particular issue, are almost universally not using rational thought, and the votes give everyone a theoretically equal say regardless of knowledge or intelligence?

I don't think that democracy is something that should be used as an ideal nor a terminal value on this website. It has too many obvious faults.

As for humans needing to be employed : autonomous return fire drones are going to be very expensive to build and maintain. That "expense" means that the labor of thousands is needed somewhere in the process.

However, in the long run, obviously it's possibly to build factories to churn them out faster than replacing soldiers. Numerous examples of this happened during ww2, where even high technology items such as aircraft were easier to replace than the pilots to fly them.

Comment author: Houshalter 10 March 2014 06:29:51AM 1 point [-]

Democracy is imperfect, but dictatorships are worse.

As for humans needing to be employed : autonomous return fire drones are going to be very expensive to build and maintain. That "expense" means that the labor of thousands is needed somewhere in the process.

I honestly don't think this is the case. Hobbyists working on their own with limited budgets have made autonomous paintball guns, as well as all sorts of other robots and UAVs. Conceivably robots could be incredibly cheap, much much cheaper than the average soldier.