OrphanWilde comments on Can we dodge the mindkiller? - Less Wrong

5 Post author: NancyLebovitz 14 June 2013 12:25PM

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Comment author: OrphanWilde 14 June 2013 03:12:33PM 2 points [-]

What predictions would you make about a universe where this is the case for most people, as compared to a universe where it is the case for only a small but vocal minority?

Comment author: tim 14 June 2013 03:54:13PM *  0 points [-]

In a universe where the majority of people did not form clusters of beliefs centered around a political identity I would be extremely surprised to find so many people whose beliefs happened to match up perfectly[redacted] with one of only a few political stereotypes.

Comment author: OrphanWilde 14 June 2013 04:08:27PM 2 points [-]

What makes you believe their beliefs match up perfectly?

Comment author: tim 14 June 2013 04:28:52PM *  3 points [-]

Perfectly was a poor choice of words. I would expect there to be much more variation in the combinations of beliefs that people hold than is observed. People who favor more aid to the poor are likely to also be pro choice. People who are pro war are likely to be pro life (these are true for US politics at least).

It is not obvious why these particular beliefs should be connected. I think you could make a convincing "just so" story for the sets of beliefs as they are and for their opposites.

edit: in a world where people thought through each of their beliefs independently I would expect the ratio of numBelieves(pro war, pro life) : numBelieves(pro war, pro choice) to be a lot closer to 1 than we observe.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 15 June 2013 04:54:47AM *  1 point [-]

It could be that the clustering you observe is caused by some other underlying clustering, e.g., class, personality type, a smaller set of fundamental "axiomatic" beliefs etc.