Eugine_Nier comments on Can we dodge the mindkiller? - Less Wrong

5 Post author: NancyLebovitz 14 June 2013 12:25PM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 21 June 2013 04:55:09AM 0 points [-]

1) better, more consistent evidence for policies (good stats rather than govts commissioning policy-based evidence)

Although when the stakes are sufficiently high (as they often are in politics) this tends to degenerate to people finding ways to bride, intimidate, or otherwise manipulate whoever is gathering and/or analyzing said evidence.

Comment author: DavidAgain 21 June 2013 06:21:52AM 0 points [-]

Well, everything has risks. But you can generally tell when people are doing that. And it's harder if the evidence is systematic rather than post-hoc reviews of specific things.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 25 June 2013 02:08:03AM 0 points [-]

But you can generally tell when people are doing that.

Really, this is much harder than you seem to think.

Comment author: DavidAgain 26 June 2013 03:34:25PM 1 point [-]

I'm not sure exactly what you're referring to, so it's hard to respond. I think most of the damage done to evidence-gathering is done in fairly open ways: the organisation explains what it's doing even while it's selecting a dodgy method of analysis. At least that way you can debate about the quality of the evidence.

There are also cases of outright black-ops in terms of evidence-gathering, but I suspect they're much rarer, simply because that sort of work is usually done by a wide range of people with varied motivations, not a dedicated cabal who will work together to twist data.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 27 June 2013 01:35:16AM *  0 points [-]

I think most of the damage done to evidence-gathering is done in fairly open ways: the organisation explains what it's doing even while it's selecting a dodgy method of analysis.

True, and this is generally hard to notice if your a non-expert, it is also hard to tell who is or isn't an expert if you're not one. As a result people tend to go with the "official position".

There are also cases of outright black-ops in terms of evidence-gathering, but I suspect they're much rarer, simply because that sort of work is usually done by a wide range of people with varied motivations,

True, unfortunately what tends to happen in practice is that enough people in the data pipeline manipulate the data for some reason or other that by the time the analysis is finished its correlation with reality is rather tenuous.

Comment author: DavidAgain 29 June 2013 09:02:13AM -1 points [-]

These are both risks. But the issue about manipulation at various points is presumably unlikely to add up to systematically misleading results: the involvement of many manipulators here would presumably create a lot of noise.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 30 June 2013 05:53:31AM 0 points [-]

But the issue about manipulation at various points is presumably unlikely to add up to systematically misleading results

Not necessarily, one of the manipulators might get lucky and do something that overrides the others.