I suspect that the problem of trusting system 1 is more general than the problem of perfectly analyzing system 2 (as a citation: the fact that humans use system 1 reasoning almost all the time).

I agree that the system 2 answer to this question is also interesting, and my first answer was the bayesian answer which I believe was 3rd on the OP.

I stand by the fact that the real world answer to THIS problem is decided by contingent environmental circumstances, and that the real answer to any similar but scaled-up real world problem will also probably be decided by contingent environmental circumstances. I don't resent people answering in a technical way I was more just surprised that no one else had written what I wrote.