= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Pentashagon comments on Normative uncertainty in Newcomb's problem - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (31)
If there is visibly $1,000 in box A and there's a probability 0<p<1 of $1,000 being in box B then EU(two-boxing) > EU(one-boxing), unless one is particularly incompetent at opening boxes labelled "A". Even if Omega is omniscient, I'm not, so I can never have p=1.
If anyone would one-box at 1:1 odds, would they also one-box at 1:1.01 odds (taking $990 over $1000 by two-boxing) in the hope that Omega would offer better odds in the future and predict them better?
I wouldn't one-box at 1:1.01 odds; the rule I was working off was: "Precommit to one-boxing when box B is stated to contain at least as much money as box A," and I was about to launch into this big justification on how even if Omega was observed to have 99+% accuracy, rather than being a perfect predictor, it'll fail at predicting a complicated theory before it fails at predicting a simple one...
...and that's when I realized that "Precommit to one-boxing when box B is stated to contain more money than box A," is just as simple a rule that lets me two-box at 1:1 and one-box when it will earn me more.
TL;DR - your point is well taken.