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ThisSpaceAvailable comments on Is our continued existence evidence that Mutually Assured Destruction worked? - Less Wrong
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I don't see what your reasoning is (and I find "anthropics would hold" to be ambiguous). Can you explain?
Suppose half the worlds adopt a strategy that is certain to avoid war, and half adopt one the has a 50% chance. Of the worlds without war, 2/3 have adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war. Therefore, anyone in a world without war should have their confidence that they are in a world that has adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war go from ½ to 2/3 upon seeing war fail to develop.