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Decius comments on Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb? - Less Wrong
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At the time you are asked to make the decision, taking both boxes gets you more money than taking one box does.
People who take one box take $1,000,000 instead of $1,001,000; people who take two boxes take $1000 instead of $0.
Um, huh?
I don't enjoy word games, but what does "instead of" mean here?
The one-boxers had a choice between $1m and $1m+1k; the two boxers had a choice between $0 and $1k. The "instead of" refers to their reward if they had done the opposite of what it had already been predicted that they do.
The problem statement is assuming a perfect predictor, though, so that 'instead of' clause is mostly noise.
Yeah, it designates the counterfactual; what they didn't take.
It's not referring to a possible state of reality.
In which case there aren't possible states of reality; only exemplified and counterfactual states.