SapientPearwood comments on Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb? - Less Wrong

15 Post author: CarlShulman 19 June 2013 01:55AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 19 June 2013 09:46:20PM 6 points [-]

Adding to your story, it's not just Eliezer Yudkowsky's introduction to Newcomb's problem. It's the entire Bayesian / Less Wrong mindset. Here, Eliezer wrote:

That was when I discovered that I was of the type called 'Bayesian'. As far as I can tell, I was born that way.

I felt something similar when I was reading through the sequences. Everything "clicked" for me - it just made sense. I couldn't imagine thinking another way.

Same with Newcomb's problem. I wasn't introduced to it by Eliezer, but I still thought one-boxing was obvious; it works.

Many Less Wrongers that have stuck around probably have had a similar experience; the Bayesian standpoint seems intuitive. Eliezer's support certainly helps to propagate one-boxing, but LessWrongers seem to be a self-selecting group.

Comment author: [deleted] 25 May 2014 04:13:13PM 0 points [-]

It also helps that most Bayesian decision algorithms actually take on the arg max_a U(a)*P(a) reasoning of Evidential Decision Theory, which means that whenever you invoke your self-image as a capital-B Bayesian you are semi-consciously invoking Evidential Decision Theory, which does actually get the right answer, even if it messes up on other problems.

(Commenting because I got here while looking for citations for my WIP post about another way to handle Newcomb-like problems.)