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Decius comments on Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb? - Less Wrong
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Social signalling doesn't make one easier to accurately predict. Costly signalling and precommitment costs might, but everyone rational would implement a free signal that made the judge more likely to put the money in the box- regardless of their actual intent.
If it was free, it wouldn't make the judge more likely to put the money in the box. Unless the judge was really bad at his job.
What if it was sunk cost? Should that convince a judge?
What if the precommitment cost is lower than the difference between the high reward and the low reward? Should that convince a judge?
Where does social signalling actually help to make the decision?
I think the idea is that, given an assumption of having a fairly typical mind, the signal is supposed to be unlikely if one is not precommitted to whatever one is signalling allegiance to. Though honestly, I have no idea how you'd convincingly signal that you're following TDT. Evolution did not prepare me for that situation! :)
If the judge knows that you are trying to convince him, then there should be nothing you can do which convinces him short of committing to a penalty cost if you take a different action (which is the same as changing the payoff matrix); If I manage to commit to giving $1500 to a charity that I hate (e.g. Westboro) if I take both boxes, and communicate that commitment to the judge, then I can convince the judge that I will take one box.
I don't have to convince him of my decision process, only of my actions.
Saying you'll two-box does make it easier to predict...
Cue the slow clap on the people who say they'll two-box (of course they only say that since they discount the possibility that this will ever actually happen).
Don't you believe us? I do discount the possibility that the impossible version will happen, but not the possibility that a near-analogue will happen. I withhold my judgement on near-analogues until and unless I have sufficient information to estimate the results.