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Qiaochu_Yuan comments on Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb? - Less Wrong
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You didn't, quite. CDT favors modifying to one-box on all problems where there is causal influence from your physical decision to make the change. So it favors one-boxing on Newcomb with a Predictor who predicts by scanning you after the change, but two-boxing with respect to earlier causal entanglements, or logical/algorithmic similarities. In the terminology of this post CDT (counterfactuals over acts) attempts to replace itself with counterfactuals over earlier innards at the time of replacement, not counterfactuals over algorithms.
Yes. So it is consistent for a CDTer to believe that:
(1) When picking a decision theory, you should pick one that tells you to one-box in instances of NP where the prediction has not yet occurred; and
(2) CDT correctly describes two-boxing as the rational decision in NP.
I committed the sin of brevity in order to save time (LW is kind of a guilty pleasure rather than something I actually have the time to be doing).
OK, that's all good, but already part of the standard picture and leaves almost all the arguments intact over cases one didn't get to precommit for, which is the standard presentation in any case. So I'd say it doesn't much support the earlier claim:
Also:
No pressure.
Perhaps my earlier claim was too strong.
Nevertheless, I do think that people on LW who haven't thought about the issues a lot might well not have a solid enough opinion to be either agreeing or disagreeing with the LW one-boxing view or the two-boxing philosopher's view. I suspect some of these people just note that one-boxing is the best algorithm and think that this means that they're agreeing with LW when in fact this leaves them neutral on the issue until they make their claim more precise.
I also think one of the reasons for the lack of two-boxers on LW is that LW often presents two-boxing arguments in a slogan form which fails to do justice to these arguments (see my comments here and here). Which isn't to say that the two-boxers are right but is to say I think the debate gets skewed unreasonably in one-boxers' favour on LW (not always, but often enough to influence people's opinions).