jkaufman comments on College Student Philanthropy and Funding Millenium Villages - Less Wrong
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This is optimistic. See this summary of a 2011 RCT.
There's evidence that the MVP can keep people from dying (at 35x the cost of the AMF) but "lift themselves up out of poverty" is basically unsubstantiated.
Also relevant: http://blog.givewell.org/category/millennium-villages/