fowlertm comments on Start Under the Streetlight, then Push into the Shadows - Less Wrong
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See Douglas Hubbard's book "How to Measure Anything" (and related blog) for a discussion. Basically, he says that in the presence of uncertainty it's better to measure something and then discusses how to do that.
In the Edge Annual Question for 2013 Information Scientist Bart Kosko discusses this in the context of which probability models we tend to use (tl;dr):
Full answer here.