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ESRogs comments on Book: AKA Shakespeare (an extended Bayesian investigation) - Less Wrong
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If I'm reading the chart on that page correctly, Gwern is extremely well calibrated. Is the accuracy row for each confidence column telling us what fraction of predictions Gwern assigned a given confidence to have been right? He's got 50% - 44%, 60% - 64%, 70% - 71%, 80% - 83%, 90% - 92%, and 100% - 96%. That's incredible!
Yes, something like that. I forget the exact details of how it bins.
Thank you. That's years of practice and some useful heuristics at work there.