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atorm comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89 - Less Wrong
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Harry knows how smart Quirrell is, and he knows that if it occurred to him that the troll was an attempt on Hermione's life, it would have occurred to Quirrell instantly. We (and Harry) know that Quirrell said nothing to McGonagall, from which Harry will soon infer that Quirrell could have saved Hermione yet did nothing. (Which makes it likely, but not certain, that it was Quirrell who was behind the troll.) In either case Quirrell has reached a point, or is about to reach a point, in his sinister plan where it no longer matters (or perhaps even requires) that Harry take him as a mortal enemy.
Draco (and maybe even Lucius) will most likely infer from the troll incident that Hermoine was not the one who attacked him, and he will align himself with Harry in the coming Roaring Rampage of Revenge. I would not be surprised if Lesath Lestrange also made an appearance.
Quirrel didn't know that Hermione was missing when he left with McGonagall.
The assailant in question introduced a troll through the school wards, enchanted it to resist sunlight, disabled Hermione's cloak & broom, arranged for it to be in the same part of the castle, made the troll eat Hermione's legs to disable her portkey toering, and is apparently responsible for Fred & George no longer having the Marauder's Map which real-time locates every student in the school.
Seriously? Of course the attacker (Quirrel) knew she wasn't in the hall.
thanks this makes it clear that it was aimed at Hermione.
I don't accept that Quirrel is necessarily the attacker, but more to the point, I meant that Harry wouldn't know Quirrel would know Hermione wasn't in the hall, so he wouldn't expect Quirrel to behave as if he knew.
Even if Quirrell weren't responsible, he would almost certainly have the presence of mind to quickly check whether any high-value targets (Harry, Hermione, and possibly Neville) were missing. Harry manages to do the same, albeit after some unwarranted delay; he would not expect Quirrell to forget it.
Maybe. Harry didn't remember to check until after Quirrel had left. I think it wouldn't be hard for Quirrel to convince Harry that as soon as he realized Hermione was in danger he came as fast as he could, especially since he really DID burn holes through Hogwarts to get there. He will need a believable explanation of how he knew where to go, though.