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buybuydandavis comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89 - Less Wrong
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Lucius is going to be outraged and lead an opposition to Dumbledore because the attempted murderer of his son, who he tried to send to Azkaban for 10 years, got killed in Hogwarts? I think that would seem a bit odd to everyone involved.
Lucius has means of his own, and had every reason to arrange Hermione's death.
No, Lucius is going to stir up an opposition to Dumbledore because Dumbledore is his hated enemy. Do you honestly think that Lucius would pass by any excuse to harm Dumbledore?
(And he will have a easy time at it too. A troll loose in Hogwarts, killing a student? That will reflect extremely badly on Dumbledore, even from the viewpoint of the neutral factions.)
He'd pass on excuses that don't benefit him. He's the obvious suspect. Accomplishing the crime redounds to his reputation and benefit. Why spoil it?
The alternative you propose would seem rather absurd in the face of everyone assuming Lucius arranged the death of Hermione in the first place, after failing to arrange her death in Azkaban.
You want everybody to think Lucius is behind it. They have no reason to want to think that. I think this is warping your thinking. From a basic political point of view, I find it unlikely that any but Dumbledore's allies would be trying to pin the blame on Malfoy.
Here, tell you what. Predictions should be recorded. Here is my prediction on PredictionBook.