I'm happy to learn that you consider UDT a variant of EDT, because after thinking about these issues for awhile my current point of view is that some form of EDT is obviously the correct thing to do, but in standard examples of EDT failing the relevant Bayesian updates are being performed incorrectly. The problem is that forcing yourself into a reference class by performing an action doesn't make it reasonable for you to reason as if you were a random sample from that reference class, because you aren't: you introduced a selection bias. Does this agree with your thoughts?