gwern comments on [Link] Bets, Portfolios, and Belief Revelation - Less Wrong
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Yeah, Intrade is not currently functioning... However on the bright side: Intrade's problems seem to be internal & financial, not criminal/legal, so it's possible it will resume trading; and with the rise of Bitcoin, new betting sites have been enabled and quasi-prediction-markets like http://betsofbitco.in/ are already functioning - they suck compared to Intrade, but people are aware of the market niche and we can hope for a new Bitcoin-based prediction market at some point in the near future.