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metatroll comments on Open Thread, July 1-15, 2013 - Less Wrong
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinderella_effect
Questions about the validity of the Cinderella effect aside, the OP knows the couple and can probably make a more informed judgement about this.
Of course, you can't tell this perfectly. But if the OP is anything more than casual acquaintances with the couple, I would say specific evidence probably overpowers the general case.