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Velorien comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 - Less Wrong
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I think "Spontaneous Duplication" is made-up by Minerva or someone as an explaination to wave off anyone who might see mulitple Harrys running around due to the time turner.
Somehow, I am unable to imagine Minerva flat-out lying to a student about an academic fact such as the existence/symptoms of a disease, certainly not without something truly staggering being at stake.
I think it sounds the way an official lie would sound, and afaik the consequences of botched time travel are truly staggering.
They start with "the Scotland Crater" and go up from there.