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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Against easy superintelligence: the unforeseen friction argument - Less Wrong
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Point taken, though I've already increased my probability of early FOOM ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad4bHtSXiFE )
And I stand by the point that most noise will be negative. Start changing random things in, say, the earth's ecosystem, may open great new opportunities, but is most likely to cost us than benefit us.