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alex_zag_al comments on Progress on automated mathematical theorem proving? - Less Wrong
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Bayesian probability theory tells you how to process evidence as well as possible. If you know what's evidence of a correct path, you can make it into an ad-hoc hueristic more easily than a part of a Bayesian update. Seems like the real insight required is to figure out what's evidence of a correct path.
You've put your finger on a weakness of my optimistic vision. If the guesses are calling it 90% of the time, they significantly extend the feasible depth of search. But 60:40? Meh! There is a lot of room for the insights to fail to be sharp enough, which turns the Bayesian stuff into CPU-cycle wasting overhead.