JoshuaZ comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 21, chapters 91 & 92 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: NancyLebovitz 04 July 2013 11:49AM

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Comment author: Velorien 05 July 2013 03:19:02PM 16 points [-]

Chapter 79:

"The grim!" Professor Trelawney said in a quavering voice, as she peered into George Weasley's teacup. "The grim! It is a sign of death! One whom you know, George - someone you know is to die! And soon - yes, it shall be quite soon, I think - unless of course it is later -"

It would have been a good deal scarier, thought Fred and George, if she hadn't said the same thing to every single other student in their Divination class.

I'm having to update my probability that HPMOR!Trelawney is actually good at her job.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 05 July 2013 03:23:07PM 3 points [-]

Not really. if she says the same thing each time it shouldn't be surprising that a rare hit occurs. It seems heavily implied that Dumbledore keeps her around (both in canon and in HPMOR) because she occasionally emits a genuine prophecy.

Comment author: gwern 05 July 2013 03:48:51PM 8 points [-]

Not really. if she says the same thing each time it shouldn't be surprising that a rare hit occurs.

Ah, but consider how rarely students die at Hogwarts: we're at a 50-year gap between Myrtle and Hermione. If Trelawney told every student this year that they were going to die, but not the other years, then actually she's remarkably accurate.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 05 July 2013 03:53:19PM 4 points [-]

Sure, do we have any reason to think she's only done it this year?

Comment author: tim 05 July 2013 04:58:20PM *  10 points [-]

Possibly. Since Fred and George thought it would have been a good deal scarier "if she hadn't said the same thing to every single other student in their Divination class" rather than "if she hadn't said the same thing every year/week/day," its weakly implied that this is the first time she's make this prediction.

edit: although "every single other student in their Divination class" is somewhat ambiguous and could mean that over the course of the semester she has made this prediction for everyone at different times.

Comment author: Velorien 05 July 2013 07:40:15PM 2 points [-]

edit: although "every single other student in their Divination class" is somewhat ambiguous and could mean that over the course of the semester she has made this prediction for everyone at different times.

Then again, after SPHEW, everyone in the school "knows" Hermione.

Comment author: Sheaman3773 26 August 2013 03:54:16PM 0 points [-]

In canon, at least, she did that sort of thing every year. That only means so much here, of course.

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