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RichardKennaway comments on Evidential Decision Theory, Selection Bias, and Reference Classes - Less Wrong
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The toxoplasmosis version has the drawback that in the real world there is presumably also a causal link from adoring cats to getting infected, which has to be disregarded for The Toxoplasmosis Problem, just as the real causal effect of smoking on cancer must be disregarded in The Smoking Lesion.