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arundelo comments on Evidential Decision Theory, Selection Bias, and Reference Classes - Less Wrong
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Other alternatives to the Smoking Lesion Problem:
Eliezer has one with chewing gum and throat abcesses (PDF). "I have avoided [the Smoking Lesion] variant because in real life, smoking does cause lung cancer."
(According to that same document this class of problem is known as Solomon's Problem.)
orthonormal proposes the Aspirin Paradox.