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shminux comments on Evidential Decision Theory, Selection Bias, and Reference Classes - Less Wrong
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Can't say I follow... As for the absentminded driver, I thought reflective consistency takes care of it (you don't recalculate your probabilities on the fly in absence of any new information).
The absentminded driver learns something when they learn they are at an intersection. The bits of information they get from the enviroment enable them to distinguish between intersection and non-intersection situations, at least :P
I don't believe the driver learns anything new at an intersection. She knows the map and the payout in advance, there is not a single bit of information at an intersection that requires any decision making not already done before the start. The absentmindedness part means that the calculation is repeated at each intersection, but it's the exact same calculation.