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AlexMennen comments on Evidential Decision Theory, Selection Bias, and Reference Classes - Less Wrong
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But in the transparent-box variant, the EDT agent knows exactly how much money is in box A before making its decision, so its beliefs about the contents of box A do not change when it updates on its counterfactual decision.
Ah. I guess we're not allowing EDT to make precommitments?
We don't usually let decision theories make precommitments. That's why CDT fails Newcomb's problem. I think CDT and EDT both converge to something like TDT/UDT when allowed to precommit as far in advance as desirable.
If you want to change what you want, then you've decided that your first-orded preferences were bad. EDT recognizing that it can replace itself with a better decision theory is not the same as it getting the answer right; the thing that makes the decision is not EDT anymore.