Vaniver comments on Evidential Decision Theory, Selection Bias, and Reference Classes - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Qiaochu_Yuan 08 July 2013 05:16AM

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Comment author: Vaniver 18 July 2013 05:27:04PM 0 points [-]

Ideal Bayesian updates assume logical omniscience, right? Including knowledge about logical fact of what EDT would do for any given input.

Note that step 1 is "Assume that I saw myself doing X," not "Assume that EDT outputs X as the optimal action." I believe that excludes any contradictions along those lines. Does logical omniscience preclude imagining counterfactual worlds?

Comment author: pengvado 19 July 2013 03:14:10AM 1 point [-]

If I already know "I am EDT", then "I saw myself doing X" does imply "EDT outputs X as the optimal action". Logical omniscience doesn't preclude imagining counterfactual worlds, but imagining counterfactual worlds is a different operation than performing Bayesian updates. CDT constructs counterfactuals by severing some of the edges in its causal graph and then assuming certain values for the nodes that no longer have any causes. TDT does too, except with a different graph and a different choice of edges to sever.