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Kindly comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 23, chapter 94 - Less Wrong
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Doesn't your 30% prediction imply the 20% prediction?
No, HP could go back in time and call himself Tom Riddle. Especially if he was becoming one of those "Dark Wizards who change names like you and I change clothes"
...I would dismiss this out of hand, except that "Tom Marvolo Riddle" is a ridiculously appropriate name.