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paper-machine comments on Some highlights from Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" - Less Wrong
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Nope, just ambiguity in English. You read "may have given rise to [all/most] religious wars" when he meant "may have given rise to [some] religious wars."
In general, though, it's exhausting to constantly attempt to write things in a way that minimizes uncharitable interpretations, so readers have an obligation not to jump to conclusions.
Ah, I see the ambiguity now. My mistake; thank you for the explanation!
EDIT: You know, I keep getting tripped up by this sort of thing. I don't know if it's because English isn't my first language (although I've known it for over two decades), or if it's just a general failing. Anyway, correction accepted.