I don't know quine at all and can't easily understand exactly what all these guys are doing but:
This is obviously NOT a stable metagame; in both senses.
If we ran this tournament again the random-bots would get utterly destroyed (since it's very easy/fast to check for them and defect). If we ran this tournament with multiple rounds, where successful strategies survive and unsuccessful die, and there was even one defect-against-randombot code in the mix, it will win if it doesn't die early.
My guess-happy summary of what happened is this: The core problem is very hard, so most people instead did something simple, often very simple (cooperate bot, defect bot, random bot - which won!) with a small number of people trying for real. The people trying for real, however, spent all their energy planning for other people trying for real and trying to fool them, rather than trying to act correctly against all the super-simple programs, because if you put in that much work you think other people will mostly put in at least some work (R has an entire long blog post of metagame and strategic analysis which is COMPLETELY wrong in exactly this way, in real life I do this a lot). That, combined with programming errors since the task involved was actually hard, prevented them from winning.
The lesson here, I think, is more about how people react to such tournaments than it is about the actual problem at hand; if anyone had assumed their opponents would either be simple or hopelessly complex, they could have written a program that defects against programs that don't look at their code or otherwise are clearly safe defections, does something hard to exploit against everyone else that likely is somewhat random, and win easily.
Your summary seems pretty accurate. I don't think there were many programming errors outside of P's meltdown, though. Also, as has been touched upon elsewhere in these comments, some of the failures to maximally exploit simple bots were necessary side effects of the attempts to trick complex bots, not just failures to anticipate there being a significant number of simple bots at all. (Sort of a quantitative instead of qualitative prediction mistake--we just thought there'd be more complex bots than simple bots).
One clue towards the general simplicity of th...
The prisoner's dilemma tournament is over. There were a total of 21 entries. The winner is Margaret Sy, with a total of 39 points. 2nd and 3rd place go to rpglover64 and THE BLACK KNIGHT, with scores of 38 and 36 points respectively. There were some fairly intricate strategies in the tournament, but all three of these top scorers submitted programs that completely ignored the source code of the other player and acted randomly, with the winner having a bias towards defecting.
You can download a chart describing the outcomes here, and the source codes for the entries can be downloaded here.
I represented each submission with a single letter while running the tournament. Here is a directory of the entries, along with their scores: (some people gave me a term to refer to the player by, while others gave me a term to refer to the program. I went with whatever they gave me, and if they gave me both, I put the player first and then the program)
A: rpglover64 (38)
B: Watson Ladd (27)
c: THE BLACK KNIGHT (36)
D: skepsci (24)
E: Devin Bayer (30)
F: Billy, Mimic-- (27)
G: itaibn (34)
H: CooperateBot (24)
I: Sean Nolan (28)
J: oaz (26)
K: selbram (34)
L: Alexei (25)
M: LEmma (25)
N: BloodyShrimp (34)
O: caa (32)
P: nshepperd (25)
Q: Margaret Sy (39)
R: So8res, NateBot (33)
S: Quinn (33)
T: HonoreDB (23)
U: SlappedTogetherAtTheLastMinuteBot (20)